UFC 71: Odds & Picks

So like I promised, heres a rundown of all the fights and the odds for saturday night. I’ll start at the bottom and work my way to the main event.
To start off the night we have 2 light heavyweight fighters in Carmelo “The Fury” Marrero(6-1-0) vs Wilson Gouveia(8-4-0). Niether fighter is particularly well know however the odds are favoring Gouveia at -280 (risk $280 to win $100) with a comeback of +220 on Marrero(risk $100 to win $220). Gouveia is a Brazilian jiu jitsu blackbelt who likes to utilize takedowns and chokeouts while Marrero also utilizes the takedown with his background in wrestling. In this case I will have to take the underdog simply because neither fighter has an advantage over the other and if your getting more than 2 to 1 in a UFC fight and both fighters are equal then I have to take the dog.
Next up is a lightweight bout between Jeremy”Little Heathen”Stephens(13-1-0) and Din “Dinyero” Thomas(22-7-0). Stephens is an up and comer who at 20 years of age has already made a name for himself in the midwest MMA circuit and was scratched from a championship event after getting the UFC offer earlier this week. His age and inexperience will be a huge factor when going up against a UFC veteran like Din Thomas. The current line is Stephens +260 (risk $100 to win $260) while Din Thomas is a huge favorite at -300(risk $300 to win $100). Niether fighter is particularly great, but Stephens does have a promising career ahead of him especially if he can pull off an upset on saturday night, however his lack of experience in the octagon may be his downfall and this is why I have to go with Thomas in this instance, but I will wait to see if the line come down at all and I can get some buy back with him on the day of the fight.
Next on the card will be yet another light heavyweight bout between Sean Salmon(9-2-0) and Alan Belcher(9-3-0). Salmon trains with former UFC middleweight champ Rich Franklin and is on the Team Jorge Gurgel fight team out of West Chester, Ohio which means that he is a wrestler and will look to shoot for the take down against a taller more nimble Belcher. Belcher who is a last minute entry filling in for an injured Eric Schafer is more of a standup striker type of a fighter and will use his legs against a smaller, stouter Salmon. The current lines have Salmon favored at -125(risk $125 to win $100) and Belcher a close underdog at -105(risk $105 to win $100). Now I believe that this last minute change has put a big kink in Salmon’s plans as he has been trainging to fight another wrestler in Eric Schafer and all of a sudden he is fighting a standup striker who is bigger than him. Now his whole game plan changes and he has to be prepared to fight on his feet. On the other side, Belcher will have to have his full takedown defense working to ward off Salmon’s superior wrestling skills. For this fight I like the big guy Belcher, right now hes super cheap and I am looking for a knockout so the striker seems like the obvious choice.
Next up, light heavyweight Brazilian born Thiago Silva(9-0-0) vs James “Sandman” Irvin(12-3-1). This should be one of the better fights on the card, both fighters are standup strikers and have proven to give entertaining performances throughout their careers, it should be an all out war and there will definantly be a KO probably second round. Silva is a heavy favorite at -230(risk $230 to win $100) while the comeback on Irvin is +190(risk $100 to win $190). Before looking at the lines I would have definantly bet Silva to whip him, but upon further review I don’t like to pay more than 2 to 1 for a favorite in UFC where it is very common for the underdog to win. I probably won’t take a position on this fight unless I throw a small just for fun wager Irvin simply because hes coming off a win at UFC 65 and is a talented fighter who is very capable of getting the win.
Following the Silva fight is a middleweight bout between Kalib Starnes(9-2-1) and Chris “The Crippler” Leben(16-3-0). Both fighters are coming off of loses and both are hungry to get back to winning. Leben is best known for his appreance on Ultimate Fighter 1 that launched his career with the UFC, but has become bitter and unhappy with his contract and is looking to get picked up by another MMA fight league this tells me that his heart isn’t in it and before I even look at the line I like Starnes, simply because he has more to prove. Current lines have Leben favored at a whopping -230(risk $230 to win $100) and Starnes at +190(risk $100 to win $190). Both fighters can standup and strike as well as go to the floor. I definantly like Starnes in this one.
Yet another light heavyweight bout on the card is oldschooler Houston Alexander(6-1-0) vs top contender Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine(12-3-1). This to me is a huge mismatch between a cinderella man in Alexander and the established and feared Jardine. Without even getting into it, the current line has Jardine as the obvious huge favorite at -600(risk $600 to win $100) and Alexander at +400(risk $100 to win $400). Obviously I like Jardine to wipe the floor with this guy, but I’m not going to put up $600 to prove it!!!
Next up, another Middleweight bout between Terry Martin(17-2-0) and Ivan Salaverry(12-4-1). Both fighter have exceptional experience, but Terry Martin is just the better fighter. Martin will stalk his oppenents around the ring and likes to fight in close contact while Salaverry prefers to dance around and pick his shots from the outside. Vegas must be out of their collective minds because they currently have Salaverry favored at -150(risk $150 to win $100) with Martin at +120(risk $100 to win $120) you can be sure that I will be all over Martin on this one, it looks like the line is reversed!!!
Now I’ll take a look at the main undercard of the night, a Welterweight bout between Josh “The Peoples Warrior” Burkman(19-3-0) vs Karo “The Heat” Parisyan(24-4-0). With as much experience as these 2 have it would be hard to determine the odds, however in all of Vegas’s wisdom they have Parisyan a heavy favorite at -260(risk $260 to win $100) while Burkman is at an astonishing +200(risk $100 to win $200). Parisyan is a Judo specialist and will want to standup and stike against Burkman and why not? It seems to have been working with a 24-4-0 record and he is also feeling neglected by the UFC for not being recognized as a top contender which drove him to negociate a title shot should he win saturday night while all the more building his confidence and drive. But, do not count out Burkman who is comfortable on the ground as well as his feet, both fighters have alot of potential and when you look at the line it seems that all the value is on Burkman, after the weigh in I will watch where the line moves, but its looking like another bet on the underdog for me.
Finally, THE MAIN EVENT: Light Heavyweights Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell vs Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in a rematch of a 2003 pridefight in which Jackson won by TKO in the second round. Oh but wait!!! Theres more to the story, first of all you have to understand that Chuck was battling a stomach flu before the fight and was probably more focused on not shiting himself in front of a packed stadium then the task at hand, fighting Jackson. Also, Chuck had torn some ligaments or something of that nature in his shoulder, which you can imagine severely hindered his fighting ability. Everyone urged him not to take the fight but being the guy that he his, he went out and fought anyways. Since that 2003 loss Chuck has been undefeated and seems more conditioned and ready as well as healthy. The current line has Chuck as a modest favorite at -185(risk $185 to win $100) with Jackson the underdog at +155(risk $100 to win $155). The line originally opened with Chuck -260 and Jackson +200, now that the line has had time to adjust we can see that the general public like Jackson to repeat and take over the Light Heavyweight belt, well I won’t say much, but I will say this…..THE PUBLIC IS WRONG WRONG WRONG!!! I like Chuck to defend the belt no problem.
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UFC 71: Liddell vs Jackson

This Saturday night at 10:00pm est Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell will square off against an old adversary in Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in which Liddell will be defending his belt in a World Light Heavyweight Championship bout.
This isn’t the first time the two have fought, the first bout took place back in 2003 at a Pride Fighting event in Japan. Jackson defeated Liddell by TKO in the second round after a storm of punches finally wore down Liddell. Since then, both fighters have been undefeated. Making his debut to the UFC in UFC 67 Jackson pummeled Marvin Eastman by way of a KO in the second round and had earned the right to fight for the Light Heavyweight belt facing a familiar foe in Chuck Liddell.
The Breakdown:
Both fighters have dominated the Light Heavyweight division all over the world and this rematch should be nothing short of an all out war. Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell has a standup striker style that allows him to use his fists as his main weapons and likes to stand his oppponents up with his fists and then slip in a high kick to the head. He also makes it a point to stay very loose and on his feet, which would indicate that he is not comfortable on the ground and wrestling his opponents is the last thing he wants to do. Liddell is 9 years the senior to Jackson and at 37 years of age, you have to think that Liddell will not want to go the distance and he will try to setup the KO early in the fight. This could be a very dangerous strategy against a younger opponent who has already beaten you. However, I don’t see an alternative for Chuck, Jackson is almost 10 years his junior and has proven over and over again that it is very difficult to square him up for a knockout hit. In order to win I think Chuck will have to bait him in and then look for the powerful counter to try and catch him off guard, much the same way he did against Tito Ortiz in UFC 66. I just don’t believe that Chuck can get into a punching contest or a wrestling match with a younger and what looks to be, a stronger opponent in Quinton Jackson. Quinton Jackson also has a standup stiker style, but is also not afraid to pick up opponents and slam them into the floor. Jacksons biggest advantage is that he has already beaten Liddell once and will probably follow the same strategy again this time around, “if it aint broke, don’t fix it!!!” He can go out and win quick if he just stands up and starts off the fight by stalking Liddell and taking control of the Octagon. There is no size difference between the 2 and it will basically come down to who can establish a rythem first and start timing their opponents for the eventual counter punch/kick for a knockout. Thats right, you heard it hear, there WILL be a knockout in this fight, there is no lovelost between these 2 and there will definanlty be some fireworks, if not for strategy then purely for the fact that these 2 REALLY don’t like each other. The line on the fight is available at GamblersPalace.com, currently it is Liddell -190 (risk $190 to win $100)and Jackson +150 (risk $100 to win $150). I would have to say that earlier in the month the value on Jackson was excellent at +200 now that the touts have come in and opinions have come out the line has moved way down into more realistic numbers, Chuck was a fan favorite which is why he opened so high, but the fact is, is that Jackson is a talented and tough fighter who has already gone up against some of the top fighters in the business. This is a tough fight to pick with no overwhelming odds to sway opinion, Jackson is no slouch and I think that at +150 there is enough value to at least throw $50 on him, but I will wait until the weigh in on friday to make a decision. Another notable fight will be Welterweights Josh “The Peoples Warrior” Burkman vs Karo “The Heat” Parisyan. Karo looks to be the more experienced fighter with a record of 24-3, however Josh Burkman has risen quite rapidly through the welterweight division in the UFC and has proven hes a force to be delt with. The current lines are Parisyan -300 (risk $300 to win $100) and Burk +220 (risk $100 to win $220). Without too much knowledge about these 2 fighters I will have to considr the value placed on Burk and whether or not I think an upset is in the works, I mean hey its the UFC, stranger things have happened. I will also have to wait to see the weighins before I make a play, but I’m leaning towards the underdog, strictly for the value. I’ll have an updated picks blog out later this week after handicapping the rest of the fights on the card.
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